Clay’s 2024 CFB Week 5 picks
As we gear up for another thrilling Saturday in college football, chaos reigns supreme, and this week's slate is no exception. From No. 20 Oklahoma State's unpredictable visit to No. 23 Kansas State, where Ollie Gordon needs to regain his form, to No. 2 Georgia's heavyweight showdown with No. 4 Alabama, every matchup carries its own narrative. We'll also see if USC can bounce back against Wisconsin after a shocking loss. At the same time, Notre Dame faces a must-win against Louisville. And don't overlook Colorado's trip to UCF, where inconsistency could be costly.
I love this slate of games.
No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-4.5) — Noon on ESPN
I was clear as day last week. You never know what version of Oklahoma State is going to show up. The score of their game against Utah was not indicative of how bad of a butt-whooping it actually was. Allan Bowman got benched, Utah was playing their backup Quarterback, and maybe most concerning… Ollie Gordon had just 42 yards rushing.
That last stat is extremely concerning for me. After a massive breakout season last year, Gordon is averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. He was the star who stirred the drink last year, and he (probably through no fault of his own) is now the equivalent of a paper straw. The Cowboys desperately need to fix their run game if they want to have any hope of contending this season.
Here is the problem: They are playing wheat field Utah, Kansas State. I refuse to believe that last week's loss was anything other than a weird, fluky late-night West Coast style of game.
So, there should be no reason for the Cowboys to cover this spread. But this is the Oklahoma State Experience, so they will.
Pick: Oklahoma State (+4.5)
Wisconsin at No. 13 USC (-15.5) — 3:30 p.m. on CBS
USC gave up 32 yards passing last week and lost. My brain cannot begin to comprehend that. Here is the good news for USC fans, though: it came down to giving up 3 big runs; otherwise, the defense looks so much better this year! After the past few years, that is a major development in the Lincoln Riley era.
USC will be able to score this week. Miller Moss is just straight-up good, even when he is getting killed by Michigan's defense. My question is, can Wisconsin score enough to keep this one close?
We really have no idea considering they haven't played since Tyler Van Dyke's season-ending injury. Safe bet is on USC for this one.
Pick: USC (-15.5)
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame (-6.5) — 3:30 p.m. on Peacock
I am uncomfortable about this game. Notre Dame's season is on the line, and it isn't even October yet. Oof.
The night game at Louisville was a brutal loss last season. It felt program-defining for Marcus Freeman. But then he killed USC at the end of the year, won a bowl game, and had a good off-season.
Now, here we are again. Notre Dame loses to Northern Illinois, and every game from this point on will make or break how this season is defined.
I am uncomfortable because I am a little too confident in the Irish for this one.
Here’s why:
Athletic Quarterbacks are gashing Louisville’s defense this season. Riley Leonard may not be able to hit a flat route, but he sure can run.
I heard that Louisville's schedule has been the 143rd hardest in the country so far this year. Yes, you read that right.
The Irish understand the stakes, and for whatever reason, they play much better in that environment than against the MAC.
Pick: Notre Dame (-6.5)
Colorado at UCF (-14) — 3:30 p.m. on FOX
Colorado is like one of those pictures where you can see two different things.
If you look one way, you see these game-breaking stars in Sanders and Hunter. Theoretically, and especially at the college level, this can keep you in any game.
If you look the other way, you will see that they have struggled with an FCS team, and it took a miracle to beat a bad Baylor team.
UCF is coming off a bye, which is critical to this matchup. I expect their running back, RJ Harvey, to have a HUGE day on the ground.
Pick: UCF (-14)
No. 2 Georgia (-1) at No. 4 Alabama — 7:30 p.m. on ABC
I don't remember who said it, but it has been in my mind ever since they did. Right after the Kentucky game, someone said that Georgia has a ton of really good players, but they are missing that elite top-end talent they have had over the past few years. I couldn't agree more. There is something that seems just marginally missing. In a matchup of this magnitude, that is the difference.
Kalen DeBoer has that magic that comes into play in this game. His coaching record is 107-12. Yes, I know Kirby Smart doesn't lose either. I just think that this is a game where DeBoer wants to make it known that he is a major player in the sport of College Football. Add in Jalen Milroe playing fantastically with a home game for the Tide. I think Alabama pulls off the "upset."
Oh, and Miss Terry, being the gameday picker, is MASSIVE bonus points.
Pick: Alabama +1
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-17.5) — 7:30 p.m. on NBC
How lucky is Penn State that the whiteout game turned out well? At the time, they were rightfully ridiculed for choosing this game, even if it was largely determined by TV. Illinois keeps on winning, though, and all of a sudden, we have a top-25 matchup in Happy Valley.
I still think that Penn State is the better team; I have little belief that Illinois has the ability to go out and win this one, especially considering the environment.
So why wouldn't I pick Penn State to cover? Illinois has a level of friskiness that I can't ignore. Luke Altmeyer is playing better than I could have ever imagined. They run the ball decently, and most importantly, they are confident right now.
Penn State wins easily, but Illinois covers.
Pick: Illinois +16.5
Quick Picks:
Maryland vs. Indiana (-7): I am in love with this Indiana team. I can’t get enough.
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss (-17.5): Ole Miss’ offense is just better.
Minnesota (+10.5) vs. Michigan: PJ Fleck really needs this one.
North Carolina (+3) vs. Duke: Win one for the Gipper.
Fresno State vs. UNLV (-3.5): Something tells me UNLV will be spicy.
Arizona (+10.5) vs. Utah: This has #Pac-12afterdark written all over it.