Clay’s 2024 Week 3 CFB Picks
I’m sitting here on my parent’s back deck watching Kansas State battle it out against Arizona on one screen and on the other UNLV is taking on Kansas. These are some of my favorite teams to randomly watch. K-State and Arizona are pulling out some really interesting run concepts while the other game has formations and motions galore. I’m having an absolute blast watching these two games.
Let’s hope this weekend is more of the same.
Here are my picks.
Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin, noon, Fox
Here is my short answer: I don’t trust Tyler Van Dyke
Here is my longer answer: I believe Luke Fickel is a good coach, in fact he’s a very good coach. But there is simply a talent disparity between these two teams that no travel and environment will solve. Fickel will likely be able to keep this game close for awhile, but as the game extends, the talent of Alabama will win out and lead to them cover.
My guess? TVD throws a pick six to secure the cover. You heard it here first.
Pick: Alabama -16.5
LSU (-7) at South Carolina, noon, ABC
As someone who moved to South Carolina without a grasp on how much they love their local teams, it didn’t take me long to realize that Columbia gets crazy on Saturdays. This will be an extremely loud environment, Sandstorm will be Sandstorming, and LSU will be at their first true road test of the year. It’s time for the athletic freaks of South Carolina to show themselves.
Maybe Nyck Harbor will finally get a touch.
Pick: South Carolina +7
Boston College at Missouri (-16.5), 12:45, SEC Network
This game has no reason to be as interesting as it is. However, I got really, really excited when I saw it on the slate. Missouri was the pre-season darling and Boston College showed themselves on the national stage by beating Florida State on Labor Day. The question for me is - can Thomas Castellanos outplay Brady Cook? While I think he can, I don’t think he does. Cook has Luther Burden III and Castellanos doesn’t. Missouri shows that they are the real deal and wins in dominating fashion.
Pick: Missouri -16.5
Notre Dame (-10) at Purdue, 3:30, CBS
Which Notre Dame team will show up? The team that beat Texas A&M or the team that lost to NIU? It’s been a week for Notre Dame fans, but it’s been even worse for the Notre Dame program. They have gotten punched in the mouth and it’s time to see how they respond. Riley Leonard is dealing with a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder. This has caused a huge contingent of fans to push for him to be sat. I think that would be a mistake. Leonard shows why he was brought in, taking advantage of the heavy run game based offense that Denbrock will employ and hitting a few deep shots.
Pick: Notre Dame -10
Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State, 3:30, Fox
I can’t even begin to imagine what this environment will be like. We talk about hated rivals a lot in sports. What about when you ditch your state rival to join a bigger conference and now that team is fading into mediocrity? Can’t even imagine.
Here’s what I like about Oregon State: They aren’t getting cute. They are averaging 54.5 rushes per game at 5.5 yards per attempt. That’s an understanding of your skill set and adapting to it. Oregon on the other hand, is a much much better team but they haven’t been operating on all cylinders yet. It will happen soon enough, but I think it takes getting through this week.
Pick: Oregon State +16.5
West Virginia (-2) at Pittsburgh, 3:30, ESPN2
West Virginia has burned me once this season. It was a bad burn too. But take away that feeling from week one and I would be hammering them at -2. So that’s what we are doing here.
You are on thin ice West Virginia.
Pick: West Virginia -2
Indiana (-3) at UCLA, 7:30, NBC
I freaking love this Indiana team and what Coach Cig is doing. Yes the additions from JMU are making a big difference, but the real key has been the transfer from Ohio, Kurtis Rourke. The man has been in total control of the offense and is doing exactly what Cig wants him to do. His stats aren’t unbelievable, but they haven’t had to be due to the competition. He’s just doing his job and hitting the open guys, which is like 80% of what a QB needs to do anyways. I feel like this is a breakout game for him after playing well against lower competition.
Pick: Indiana -3
Georgia (-24.5) at Kentucky, 6:30, ABC
I love a good revenge game and for this one Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff faces his old team. Doesn’t matter though. On the road Georgia annihilates Kentucky.
Pick: Georgia -24.5
Last week: 4-4
Total Record: 7-8