Clay’s 2024 CFB Week 10 picks
College football is at the hilarious point of the season where we understand how good teams are, but we don't know anything. Ten weeks in is a huge sample size, and we can get a great understanding of how teams are going to perform across the board. But the secret to the college football world is that we spend our time rooting for a bunch of 18-—to 24-year-old young men.
And 18-—to 24-year-olds are the least consistent people on the planet. So our concepts of who is going to be in the playoffs, who the Heisman is, and who is going to win the conference are just that—concepts that we have constructed from our imagination. Anyone can lose at any time, and at this point of the season, a surprise loss has the potential to tank 10 weeks of goodness.
I love it.
Let's make some picks.
No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 3 Penn State, Noon, Fox
Alright - I am ready to say it.
Big noon football stinks. How this isn't a night game or whiteout is beyond me. This is exactly the kind of matchup it thrives in. I'm sure there are financial reasons this is better, but that doesn't mean it isn't stupid.
I cannot believe this isn't a night game. It's the perfect setup for it! The crowd would be ridiculous, we might get a Mo Bamba repeat, and the Happy Valley whiteout is one of the coolest traditions in college football.
I don't believe in Drew Allar, and he is hurt. So yeah, Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State -3.5
No. 19 Ole Miss (-7.5) at Arkansas, Noon, ESPN
Both of these teams have some funk on them. Notice I didn't say stank. Stank means bad. Funk is just I don't know what I am smelling. Both teams are incredibly talented, with high potential and low-floor quarterbacks.
I am just going to take the points.
Pick: Arkansas +7.5
Duke at No. 5 Miami (-20.5), Noon, ABC
This is a huge number, but I don't trust Duke's offense.
Unfortunately, this is the exact kind of game that Cristobal loses.
It's a perfect danger game, but Miami likely covers late.
Pick: Miami -20.5
No. 13 Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m., Peacock
I love this Indiana team, and it's not stopping today. Kurtis Rourke is back. Go Hoosiers.
Pick: Indiana -7.5
No. 1 Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan, 3:30 p.m., CBS
This game had SO much more juice when you looked at the schedule before the season started. Michigan's offense improved last week with Davis Warren back in the fold, but it's still a bad offense. On the other hand, Dan Lanning has done a great job keeping his Ducks focused on what's in front of them. I don't see any sort of letdown.
Pick: Oregon -14.5
Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State (-13.5), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
This may be bad to admit, but I don't understand this Iowa State team at all. To be completely honest, I haven't really watched them. But from the highlights and press that I read, they are rolling. Take that and the fact that I love Matt Campbell; let's go with them.
Pick: Iowa State -13.5
Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia (-14.5), 3:30 p.m., ABC
I know this game happens at the same time every year, but I have to say it: This 3:30 slate is absolutely ridiculous! There are so many fun matchups, and on top of it, I will be watching Coastal Carolina take on Troy.
For this game, the rivalry is speaking to me. Like Ole Miss and Arkansas, albeit on a completely different level, Georgia has a little bit of the funk of them as well. I don't know what team is going to show up. They beat the brakes off of Texas but also almost lost to Kentucky! On the other sideline, Napier has done a good job of simply keeping his job. He was on thin ice for a while and is still probably on the ice. A win or even a close game would do wonders for him.
Pick: Florida +14.5
Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (-10.5), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Clemson has looked absolutely incredible since their opening game against Georgia. Klubnik looks like the prospect that many thought he would be. The run game is explosive, and the defense has been great.
Louisville can't stop a nosebleed. Clemson will score and score a lot in front of their home crowd.
Pick: Clemson -10.5
No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU (-7.5), 8 p.m., ACC Network
I can't believe I want to watch this game so badly. On week 1? Sure absolutely. I love every football game. On week 10? That's absurd. But here we are, a huge ACC game with conference championship implications on the ACC Network? Yay?
Anyway, Pitt has completely changed its identity on offense. I never thought Narduzzi would run this style. Meanwhile, SMU made a quarterback switch when I thought their guy was going to be really good this year. It should be a fun shootout, and when it's a shootout, take the points.
Pick: Pitt +7.5
No. 10 Texas A&M (-3) at South Carolina, 7:30 p.m., ABC
I have been an A&M hater all of my life. But last week against LSU? With Notre Dame looking better after? Come on, Aggies!!!!!
It's disgusting, but I am doing it again against the state I live in. (Normally I would be all over a night game at Williams Brice. This game could get weird. South Carolina is due after their close calls against top-tier opponents all season. So yeah, outside of the rooting interest, I think South Carolina pulls off the upset)
Pick: Texas A&M -3